Cautious Signs

Lord knows I'm not one to be ahead of the bandwagon. I never install 1.0 software and never buy a car in the first year of manufacture. And maybe we're looking a little too hard for signs of improvement in the economy.

So, with those disclaimers out of the way, consider these two items:

• 
  
  The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ saw a small uptick in May. The index now stands at 89.9, increasing 0.2 percent from the revised April figure of 89.7, and down 20 percent from a year ago.
  "While it is too early to say that the ETI has bottomed, the moderation of the last two months is certainly a sign that the decline in job losses is real and signals that the worst is over," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "However, as the economic recovery over the coming months is likely to be very slow, we still expect the unemployment rate to continue to increase to double digits by the end of this year and into 2010."

• The U.S. unemployment rate was the highest in 26 years, but the loss of 345,000 jobs in May, fewer than expected, was seen as a sign that the job market was no longer in free fall.